Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 3 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(14:56) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to SF 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.91 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model