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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 3 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:03) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model