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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 20

Indianapolis Colts 6 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.36 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model