Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYJ offense: -0.184 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- QB edge to NYJ: DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.259 vs Josh McCown (NYJ) -0.071 EPA/dropback
- CLE offense: -0.103 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- CLE defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 5
NYJ
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 00:01 FG NYJ (:01) 7-C.Catanzaro 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – CLE 0
- Q3 09:29 TD CLE (9:29) 8-K.Hogan pass deep left to 85-D.Njoku for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – CLE 6
- Q3 04:21 TD NYJ (4:21) 15-J.McCown pass short right to 88-A.Seferian-Jenkins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – CLE 7
- Q4 08:35 TD NYJ (8:35) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass deep right to 10-J.Kearse for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 16 – CLE 7
- Q4 02:00 TD CLE (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Hogan pass short left to 29-D.Johnson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 17 – CLE 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(13:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to CLE 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.
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Q1 CLE 4th & 13 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:05) 4-B.Colquitt punts 60 yards to NYJ 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 24 for 13 yards (52-J.Burgess).
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Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 68%
(4:25) 29-D.Johnson left guard to NYJ 31 for 2 yards (92-L.Williams).
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 23%
(13:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 38 yards to CLE 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 21 for 8 yards (42-T.Hennessy; 47-D.Bass).
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Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 65%
(10:05) 5-Z.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(1:53) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to CLE 41, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 45 for 4 yards (42-T.Hennessy). FUMBLES (42-T.Hennessy), ball out of bounds at CLE 45.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 88%
(:35) 5-Z.Gonzalez 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 57%
(5:57) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 4Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%
(13:03) 34-I.Crowell right guard to NYJ 3 for 1 yard (48-J.Jenkins).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 15 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(7:26) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to NYJ 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 30 for 3 yards (24-I.Campbell). PENALTY on NYJ-45-R.Miles, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 30.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 70 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(3:35) 4-L.Edwards punts 56 yards to CLE 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-23-T.Brooks.