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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 77

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to CLE 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 77, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -2.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model