Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to NYJ 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 30 for 3 yards (24-I.Campbell). PENALTY on NYJ-45-R.Miles, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model