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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 4

Cleveland Browns 7 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 34-I.Crowell right guard to NYJ 3 for 1 yard (48-J.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.21 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model