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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 29-D.Johnson left guard to NYJ 31 for 2 yards (92-L.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.03 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model