Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 88

New York Jets 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to CLE 41, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 45 for 4 yards (42-T.Hennessy). FUMBLES (42-T.Hennessy), ball out of bounds at CLE 45.

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.87 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 88, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model