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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 60

New York Jets 3 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP