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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
@
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2017-10-08 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

GB
56.7%
DAL
43.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.204 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • GB on 3 more days rest than DAL

Predicted Final Score

GB 26
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: GB by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

GB

Joe Thomas LB Out Ankle
Ty Montgomery RB Doubtful Ribs
Davon House CB Questionable Quadricep
Quinten Rollins CB Questionable Ankle
Davante Adams WR Questionable Concussion
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Hamstring
Ahmad Brooks LB Questionable Back
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Ankle
Mike Daniels DT Questionable Hip

DAL

Charles Tapper DE Out Foot
Sean Lee LB Questionable Hamstring
Stephen Paea DT Questionable Knee
Tyron Smith T Questionable Back
Nolan Carroll CB Questionable Concussion
La'el Collins T Questionable Ankle
Anthony Brown CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 35
–
DAL 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:26 TD DAL (8:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 11-C.Beasley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 04:05 TD GB (4:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DAL 7
  • Q2 13:41 TD DAL (13:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DAL 13
  • Q2 06:16 TD DAL (6:16) (Run formation) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-D.Bryant for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – DAL 20
  • Q2 00:58 TD GB (:58) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 12 – DAL 21
  • Q3 11:12 FG GB (11:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-T.Pepper, Holder-8-J.Vogel. GB 15 – DAL 21
  • Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 87-J.Nelson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 21 – DAL 21
  • Q4 11:49 FG DAL (11:49) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Injury update: Morgan Burnett has a hamstring injury. His return is questionable. GB 22 – DAL 24
  • Q4 10:04 TD GB (10:04) 4-D.Prescott pass short right intended for 83-T.Williams INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Randall at DAL 21. 23-D.Randall for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on GB-23-D.Randall, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 28 – DAL 24
  • Q4 01:18 TD DAL (1:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 28 – DAL 30
  • Q4 00:16 TD GB (:16) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 34 – DAL 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 91%

    (11:04) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to GB 18 for 2 yards (47-J.Ryan).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%

    (8:22) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to GB 20 for 2 yards (97-K.Clark; 50-B.Martinez).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (11:12) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-T.Pepper, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 31%

    (7:46) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to GB 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-87-G.Swaim.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 27%

    (4:43) 33-A.Jones left end pushed ob at DAL 42 for 10 yards (38-J.Heath).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 85%

    (11:49) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Injury update: Morgan Burnett has a hamstring injury. His return is questionable.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (10:46) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 59 yards to DAL 13, Center-59-T.Pepper. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 12 for -1 yards (83-J.Janis). Injury update: Chidobe Awuzie has a hamstring injury and has been ruled out for the remainder of the game.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 91%

    (2:16) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to GB 20 for no gain (50-B.Martinez). Dallas challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 21-E.Elliott up the middle to GB 19 for 1 yard (50-B.Martinez).