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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Green Bay Packers 15

What Actually Happened

(7:46) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to GB 12, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-87-G.Swaim.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.75 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP