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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 20
Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 0
What Actually Happened
(11:04) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to GB 18 for 2 yards (47-J.Ryan).
The Three Options
GO
+3.30 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +5.04 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.30 EP
KICK
+2.12 EP
- 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
- 9% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT
+0.32 EP
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
