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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 22

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Green Bay Packers 6

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to GB 20 for 2 yards (97-K.Clark; 50-B.Martinez).

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.56 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model