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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 52

Green Bay Packers 15 – Dallas Cowboys 21

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 33-A.Jones left end pushed ob at DAL 42 for 10 yards (38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.46 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model