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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Green Bay Packers 28

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to GB 20 for no gain (50-B.Martinez). Dallas challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 21-E.Elliott up the middle to GB 19 for 1 yard (50-B.Martinez).

The Three Options

GO +2.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.68 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model