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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 25

Dallas Cowboys 21 – Green Bay Packers 22

What Actually Happened

(11:49) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Injury update: Morgan Burnett has a hamstring injury. His return is questionable.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.79 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model