4th & Data
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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2017-10-08 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CAR
44.9%
DET
55.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • DET offense: -0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DET: Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.004 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.056 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CAR 21
–
DET 22
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

CAR

Kurt Coleman S Out Knee
Demetrious Cox S Out Ankle
Ryan Kalil C Out Neck
Matt Kalil T Questionable Groin
Julius Peppers DE Questionable Shoulder
Mario Addison DE Questionable Knee

DET

Kenny Golladay WR Out Hamstring
Dwayne Washington RB Out Quadricep
Paul Worrilow LB Out Knee
T.J. Lang G Questionable Back
Haloti Ngata DT Questionable Shoulder
Don Carey S Questionable Knee
Travis Swanson C Questionable Ankle
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Knee
Jarrad Davis LB Questionable Neck
Rick Wagner T Questionable Ankle
Tahir Whitehead LB Questionable Pectoral

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 27
–
DET 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:36 FG DET (11:36) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke. CAR 0 – DET 3
  • Q1 03:55 FG CAR (3:55) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – DET 3
  • Q2 13:37 TD DET (13:37) 34-Z.Zenner right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 3 – DET 9
  • Q2 11:09 TD CAR (11:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 9 – DET 10
  • Q2 00:55 TD CAR (:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 17-D.Funchess for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 16 – DET 10
  • Q3 10:50 TD CAR (10:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass deep left to 13-K.Benjamin for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 23 – DET 10
  • Q3 09:31 FG CAR (9:31) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 27 – DET 10
  • Q4 05:56 TD DET (5:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 87-D.Fells for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 27 – DET 16
  • Q4 03:28 TD DET (3:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 87-D.Fells for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 27 – DET 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (11:36) 5-M.Prater 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to DET 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:02) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to CAR 23, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 22-C.McCaffrey to CAR 36 for 13 yards (26-D.Carey).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (3:55) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (9:14) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to CAR 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 19 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:39) 5-M.Palardy punts 52 yards to DET 31, Center-44-J.Jansen. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 37 for 6 yards (19-R.Shepard).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:05) 18-J.Locke punts 29 yards to CAR 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 13 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

    (9:31) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:46) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to CAR 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (6:09) 5-M.Palardy punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 29%

    (3:18) 34-Z.Zenner left tackle to DET 45 for -4 yards (90-J.Peppers).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 19 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 63%

    (14:13) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:04) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to DET 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 90 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to DET 47, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew. Penalty on DET-10-J.Abbrederis, Running Into the Kicker, declined.