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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 56

Detroit Lions 10 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 18-J.Locke punts 29 yards to CAR 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.81 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model