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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 67

Detroit Lions 10 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to CAR 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.00 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP