Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 27 – Detroit Lions 10

(9:04) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to DET 31, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.73 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model