4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 0 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.39 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 3, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP