Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 73

Detroit Lions 10 – Carolina Panthers 27

(7:46) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to CAR 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model