Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(7:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to DET 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.68 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model