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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Monday 2017-10-02 · 20:30 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

WAS
43.1%
KC
56.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Kirk Cousins (WAS): +0.201 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • KC offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 21
–
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

WAS

Ty Nsekhe T Out Core Muscle
D.J. Swearinger S Questionable Hamstring
Will Compton LB Questionable Ankle
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Hamstring
Mason Foster LB Questionable Shoulder
Rob Kelley RB Questionable Rib
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Rib

KC

Dee Ford LB Out Back
Mitch Morse C Out Foot
Eric Fisher T Questionable Back
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 20
–
KC 29

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:00 TD WAS (12:00) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 11-T.Pryor for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – KC 0
  • Q1 02:50 FG WAS (2:50) 3-D.Hopkins 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 10 – KC 0
  • Q2 02:00 TD KC (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – KC 6
  • Q3 09:24 TD KC (9:24) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 10 – KC 13
  • Q3 07:47 TD WAS (7:47) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 14-R.Grant for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – KC 14
  • Q3 00:04 FG KC (:04) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. WAS 17 – KC 17
  • Q4 04:55 FG KC (4:55) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. WAS 17 – KC 20
  • Q4 00:50 FG WAS (:50) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 20 – KC 20
  • Q4 00:08 FG KC (:08) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. WAS 20 – KC 23
  • Q4 00:04 TD KC (:04) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 80-J.Crowder to WAS 18 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, touched at WAS 18, recovered by WAS-86-J.Reed at WAS 17. 86-J.Reed to WAS 15 for -2 yards. Lateral to 25-C.Thompson to WAS 15 for no gain (22-M.Peters). FUMBLES (22-M.Peters), RECOVERED by KC-50-J.Houston at WAS 13. 50-J.Houston for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – KC 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:39) 2-D.Colquitt punts 33 yards to WAS 49, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 74%

    (6:52) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to KC 24 for 5 yards (39-T.Mitchell).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.92 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (2:50) 3-D.Hopkins 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 15 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 47%

    (12:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 39%

    (10:23) 5-T.Way punts 28 yards to KC 14, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 29%

    (6:02) 2-D.Colquitt punts 33 yards to WAS 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (5:10) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to KC 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, touched at KC 28, and recovers at KC 27. 10-T.Hill to KC 27 for no gain (22-D.Everett).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:11) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to KC 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

    (:04) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 19%

    (13:08) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback. WAS-47-Q.Dunbar was injured during the play.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (4:55) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 86%

    (:50) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.