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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 7

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(:04) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 7, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP