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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 22

Washington Commanders 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(:50) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.10 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 32, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model