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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 29

Washington Commanders 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to KC 24 for 5 yards (39-T.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.07 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model