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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 80

Washington Commanders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to KC 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-T.Hill MUFFS catch, touched at KC 28, and recovers at KC 27. 10-T.Hill to KC 27 for no gain (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.61 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 37, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model