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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 51

Washington Commanders 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(13:08) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback. WAS-47-Q.Dunbar was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.34 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 51, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model