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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 82

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 2-D.Colquitt punts 33 yards to WAS 49, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 82, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model