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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2017-09-24 · 16:05 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

SEA
35.9%
TEN
64.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Marcus Mariota (TEN): +0.186 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: -0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 22
–
TEN 26
Projected margin: TEN by 4 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

SEA

Neiko Thorpe CB Out Ankle
D.J. Alexander LB Questionable Hamstring
Terence Garvin LB Questionable Shoulder
Jimmy Graham TE Questionable Ankle

TEN

Johnathan Cyprien S Out Hamstring
Corey Davis WR Out Hamstring
DeMarco Murray RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 27
–
TEN 33

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:26 FG TEN (13:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. SEA 0 – TEN 3
  • Q2 05:56 FG TEN (5:56) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. SEA 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 01:21 TD SEA (1:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 89-D.Baldwin for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-D.Morgan]. SEA 6 – TEN 6
  • Q2 00:05 FG TEN (:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. SEA 7 – TEN 9
  • Q3 10:15 TD SEA (10:15) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 32-C.Carson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-B.Orakpo]. SEA 13 – TEN 9
  • Q3 07:47 TD TEN (7:47) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 18-R.Matthews for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SEA-55-F.Clark, Defensive Offside, declined. SEA 14 – TEN 15
  • Q3 03:57 TD TEN (3:57) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 81-J.Smith for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 14 – TEN 22
  • Q3 01:49 TD TEN (1:49) 29-D.Murray left end for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 14 – TEN 29
  • Q4 14:06 TD SEA (14:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 82-L.Willson for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – TEN 30
  • Q4 10:05 FG TEN (10:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. SEA 20 – TEN 33
  • Q4 01:55 TD SEA (1:55) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 10-P.Richardson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-B.Orakpo]. SEA 26 – TEN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:44) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (12:45) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to TEN 31, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:19) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to SEA 2, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 12 for 10 yards (53-D.Bates).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:58) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to TEN 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 33 for 7 yards (97-M.Smith). PENALTY on TEN-33-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 26. Penalty on TEN-36-L.Sims, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:27) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to SEA 35, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 10 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 50%

    (7:17) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:48) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 29 for 13 yards (55-J.Brown). PENALTY on SEA-42-D.Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 29.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:55) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 55 yards to TEN 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 23 for 6 yards (26-S.Griffin; 38-T.Madden). PENALTY on SEA-57-M.Wilhoite, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 23.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (13:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:32) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to TEN 32, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-J.Coleman.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 91%

    (5:56) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:48) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 64 yards to TEN 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-A.Jackson for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TEN-32-D.Fluellen, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 42.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:10) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to SEA 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:40) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to TEN 31, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 46 for 15 yards (30-B.McDougald).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:59) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to TEN 17, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-A.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 25 for 8 yards (82-L.Willson).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 93%

    (10:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 12 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:20) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to SEA 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 28 for 9 yards (41-B.Trawick).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 37%

    (3:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to TEN 32 for 14 yards (25-A.Jackson) [91-D.Morgan].