Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(5:48) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 61 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 29 for 13 yards (55-J.Brown). PENALTY on SEA-42-D.Hill, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 29.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.61 EP
60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 77, worth -4.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model