Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 84

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(3:48) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 64 yards to TEN 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-A.Jackson for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on TEN-32-D.Fluellen, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 42.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.84 EP
74% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model