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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 46

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Tennessee Titans 33

What Actually Happened

(3:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 16-T.Lockett to TEN 32 for 14 yards (25-A.Jackson) [91-D.Morgan].

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.54 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model