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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 17

Tennessee Titans 30 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(10:05) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.93 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP