Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 84

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:58) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to TEN 26, Center-69-T.Ott. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 33 for 7 yards (97-M.Smith). PENALTY on TEN-33-T.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 26. Penalty on TEN-36-L.Sims, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.41 EP
57% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 84, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model