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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:44) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.31 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP