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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2017-09-24 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CLE
34.2%
IND
65.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Jacoby Brissett (IND) -0.146 vs DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.259 EPA/dropback
  • CLE defense: +0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
IND 24
Projected margin: IND by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CLE

Jamie Collins LB Out Concussion
Sammie Coates WR Doubtful Hamstring
Myles Garrett DE Doubtful Ankle
T.Y. McGill DT Questionable Back

IND

Ryan Kelly C Out Foot
Andrew Luck QB Out right Shoulder
Marlon Mack RB Out Shoulder
Chester Rogers WR Out Hamstring
Anthony Walker LB Out Hamstring
Quincy Wilson CB Out Knee
Vontae Davis CB Doubtful Groin
Brandon Williams TE Questionable Calf
Kamar Aiken WR Questionable Hip
Darius Butler S Questionable Hamstring
Chris Milton CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 28
–
IND 31

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:29 TD IND (:29) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – IND 6
  • Q2 13:32 TD CLE (13:32) (Shotgun) 29-D.Johnson left end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – IND 7
  • Q2 10:15 TD IND (10:15) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – IND 13
  • Q2 05:27 TD IND (5:27) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – IND 20
  • Q2 02:46 TD IND (2:46) (Shotgun) 23-F.Gore up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – IND 27
  • Q2 00:32 TD CLE (:32) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short left to 85-D.Njoku for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – IND 28
  • Q4 10:23 FG IND (10:23) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. CLE 14 – IND 31
  • Q4 07:04 TD CLE (7:04) (Run formation) 7-D.Kizer pass short right to 18-K.Britt for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [51-J.Simon]. Penalty on IND-30-R.Melvin, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. CLE 20 – IND 31
  • Q4 02:08 TD CLE (2:08) (Pass formation) 7-D.Kizer left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 27 – IND 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:11) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to IND 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:48) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 20 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (7:18) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to IND 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at IND 26 for 8 yards (50-B.Bello).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:47) (Punt formation) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to CLE 18, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:44) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to IND 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 38%

    (7:20) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to IND 3, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-41-M.Jordan.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:19) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to IND 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-Q.Bray to IND 40 for 13 yards (47-C.Hughlett). PENALTY on CLE-52-J.Burgess, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at IND 40.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:55) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-J.Peppers ran ob at CLE 27 for no gain. PENALTY on IND-42-K.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 27.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 13 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:28) 2-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to IND 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-Q.Bray to IND 16 for -5 yards (50-B.Bello).

  • Q4 IND 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 95%

    (10:23) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:26) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to IND 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:56) 2-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to CLE 42, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 38%

    (4:14) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback. PENALTY on IND-59-J.George, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 43%

    (:29) 2-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.