Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(10:48) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model