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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 47

Indianapolis Colts 31 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 2-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Touchback. PENALTY on IND-59-J.George, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model