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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 47

Cleveland Browns 7 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to IND 3, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-41-M.Jordan.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.70 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP