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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 14

Indianapolis Colts 28 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.03 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP