Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 28 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 22-J.Peppers ran ob at CLE 27 for no gain. PENALTY on IND-42-K.Moore, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model