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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to IND 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at IND 26 for 8 yards (50-B.Bello).

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.46 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 27, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model