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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
DET Home

Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
Sunday 2017-09-24 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

ATL
74.1%
DET
25.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: +0.272 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.002 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.337 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET defense: +0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • DET offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 28
–
DET 20
Projected margin: ATL by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

ATL

Vic Beasley LB Out Hamstring
Ryan Schraeder T Out Concussion
Courtney Upshaw DE Out Ankle
Terron Ward RB Out Neck

DET

Jarrad Davis LB Out Concussion
Dwayne Washington RB Out Quadricep
Tavon Wilson S Out Shoulder
Travis Swanson C Questionable Ankle
Ezekiel Ansah DE Questionable Knee
Joe Dahl G Questionable Lower Leg

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 30
–
DET 26

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:46 TD ATL (8:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu pushed ob at DET 1 for 3 yards (28-Q.Diggs). Atlanta challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – DET 0
  • Q2 12:56 FG ATL (12:56) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 10 – DET 0
  • Q2 10:32 FG DET (10:32) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke. ATL 10 – DET 3
  • Q2 05:04 TD ATL (5:04) 24-D.Freeman up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – DET 3
  • Q2 01:55 FG DET (1:55) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke. ATL 17 – DET 6
  • Q2 01:50 TD DET (1:50) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 11-Ju.Jones INTERCEPTED by 27-G.Quin at ATL 37. 27-G.Quin for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 17 – DET 12
  • Q2 00:36 FG ATL (:36) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 20 – DET 13
  • Q3 11:42 FG ATL (11:42) 3-M.Bryant 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 23 – DET 13
  • Q3 04:58 TD DET (4:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-G.Tate for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – DET 19
  • Q3 01:28 FG DET (1:28) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke. ATL 23 – DET 23
  • Q4 15:00 TD ATL (15:00) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 29 – DET 23
  • Q4 11:53 FG DET (11:53) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke. ATL 30 – DET 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:41) 18-J.Locke punts 49 yards to ATL 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 29 for 11 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 13 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (12:56) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 63%

    (10:32) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 89%

    (1:55) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 78%

    (:36) 3-M.Bryant 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:14) 18-J.Locke punts 48 yards to ATL 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:45) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to ATL 32, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at DET 41 for 27 yards (31-D.Hayden).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 89%

    (11:42) 3-M.Bryant 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (1:28) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 61%

    (11:53) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 29%

    (7:00) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to ATL 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (3:26) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to DET 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 15-G.Tate to DET 31 for 10 yards (40-D.Coleman).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 10 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:01) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to ATL 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts. PENALTY on DET-26-D.Carey, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 22.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (2:31) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to DET 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.