4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 18

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.74 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 18, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 28, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model