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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 22

Atlanta Falcons 20 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 3-M.Bryant 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP