Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 67

Detroit Lions 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(3:41) 18-J.Locke punts 49 yards to ATL 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 29 for 11 yards (35-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.96 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model