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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 38

Detroit Lions 23 – Atlanta Falcons 30

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 5-M.Prater 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.86 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model